This post was written before I worked out better methods of using free bets. I have left it live to illustrate a simple strategy which does not involve lay betting.
Sportsbet offers a free $100 bet to new
members after their first bet. Centrebet
offers a free $200 bet. Strictly, each offers to match your first bet with a
free one, up to a maximum of $100 for Sportsbet and $200 for Centrebet.
The
question is: Instead of potentially wasting your free bets and losing money on
the initial wagers to earn them by just taking a punt, is there a strategy
which ensures a guaranteed profit?
The
answer is yes. You can earn a guaranteed $116 from an initial outlay of $448,
or with very minimal risk, $136 from an initial outlay of $348.
There
are some conditions around the free bets which affect the strategy, so I’ll
explain them first.
Firstly,
Sportsbet gives you the free bet as soon as you lay your first one. The free bet can only be used on sport or
racing, not the election, for example. Centrebet on the other hand gives you
the free bet only after your first one has crystallized eg. after the football
match you bet on has been played, but lets you use it on any event. You can
even split it over multiple events.
The
catch is that both companies don’t let you bet on an event where you have used
your free bet. Thus, you can’t pick a sporting event and just pay to cover the
other side.
An
additional condition which affects the strategy is that with both bookmakers,
the free bet only pays you the profit if you win, not the wager as well. That
is, if you use your $100 free bet on Sydney
to beat Hawthorn with +10.5 pts start at $1.92, a win will only see you paid
$92, not the $192 you would get if you actually bet your own $100.
A
final point to be aware of before starting is that both Sportsbet and Centrebet
offer to use a credit card to make your initial deposit because it’s easier for
them to identify you as per their legal obligations. If you pull the money out
of your credit card, the bank will treat it as a cash advance and charge you
1.75%. Better to choose the EFT option and wait one day for the funds to clear.
The saving will be $7.84. That’s almost enough for 2 schooners (or one at a
fancy bar)!
I’ll
firstly describe the pure arbitrage ie. zero risk strategy. This will gain you
a certain $116.
Step 1: Deposit $248 in Sportsbet and $200 in Centrebet
by EFT.
Step 2: Find a football match or similar event where
there are only two possible, evenly priced outcomes and no third possibility of
a draw. Points start is a good one. It must be an event which will occur
straight away, because this game is going to earn you both your free bets. Most importantly, Sportsbet and
Centrebet must be offering exactly the
same points start. There is a risk of loss if they are not. There are
always plenty of such matches. Sydney
has +10.5 pts start against Hawthorn on both sites right now.
Step 3: Bet $200 on one team, say Sydney on Sportsbet
and $200 on the other team (Hawthorn) on Centrebet. I’m going to assume the
wager is paying $1.91. Points start wagers on some games will pay $1.92, but
we’ll be conservative and assume $1.91. No matter what happens in the game, you
will receive $382 from one site and lose your $200 on the other. Overall, you have spent $400 and gotten back
$382, but it doesn’t matter: you’ve spent a certain $18 to earn $300 in free
bets.
Step 4: Wait until the game is finished to receive
both your free bets. If they were of equal value, you could just find another
points start bet as in Step 2 and take each side on the two sites. But because
Centrebet’s free bet is $200, you can’t use your Sportsbet $100 free bet and
lay off the extra $100 on the same game because Sportsbet won’t let you bet on
the same event as your free bet. Hence, we need to find two games in which the
points start bets are identical on both sites. That will be easy, particularly
if your bets in Step 2 are on a Friday night game. Then you have all Saturday
and Sunday’s NRL and AFL games to choose from.
Step 5: Suppose the first game you find is St Kilda
+36.5 vs Fremantle at $1.91 each. Bet $100 of your Centrebet free bet on St
Kilda at $1.91. Now bet your $100 Sportsbet free bet on Fremantle at $1.91. One
of the bets will pay out $91 (remember the free bet conditions) and the other
nothing. You’ve earned a certain $91, regardless of the result.
Step 6: Suppose the second game you find is Carlton +6.5 vs Port
Adelaide at $1.91 each. Bet the remaining $100 of your Centrebet free bet on Carlton at $1.91. Now you’ll
need to bet your own money at Sportsbet on Port Adelaide at $1.91. It will need
to be enough to match the Centrebet payout of $91. So, bet $48 on Port at
$1.91. Remember, since it’s a bet with your own money, a win will pay out 1.91
x the bet, not 0.91 as for the free bet. One of the bets will pay out $91
(remember the free bet conditions) and the other nothing. Again, you’ve earned
a certain $91, regardless of the result, but this time you’ve had to lay out
$48. Thus, you have a certain $43 profit.
Step 7: Count your winnings. A certain $91 + $43 -
$18 on the first game = $116. Thanks Fingo! Funds for 2 cases of Reschs or
Coopers longnecks (or one of each), with enough left over for a couple of take
away curries.
Note that both Sportsbet and Centrebet also give you a free $50 bet for referring a friend. If you receive these, since they are equal amounts, you can just follow Step 5 above. Take each side of a single game on each site for a certain $45.50 from your two free bets.
That’s
how to do it in complete safety. You can make a little more if you’re prepared
to wait a couple of weeks for bets to pay off and take a couple of very small
risks. This second strategy is not a pure arbitrage, but the risks are minimal
and you’ll earn $136 for an initial outlay of $348.
Step 1: Deposit $148 in Sportsbet and $200 in
Centrebet by EFT.
Step 2: You’re going to bet on individual seats in the
upcoming federal election. Find two different seats in which the sitting member
has a massive majority, say Bradfield and Wentworth. Choose different ones for
Sportsbet and Centrebet to minimize the risk.
Step 3: Bet $100 on the Libs to win eg. Bradfield on
Sportsbet at $1.001 and $200 on Wentworth on Centrebet at $1.01 (Centrebet is
not quoting $1.001). If you’re an ALP supporter and can’t stomach that, choose
a pair like Charlton and Gellibrand instead. If you’re a Greens supporter, you
probably didn’t read this far because you think gambling is evil.
Step 4: You’ll have to wait until after the election
to claim your free $200 bet from Centrebet. But you won’t have dropped $18
securing the arbitrage. In fact, barring some freak event, you’ll be $2.10 ahead.
Now you’ll need to find two games with identical points starts on both sites as
in Step 4 of the first strategy.
Steps 5 and 6: Exactly as in Steps 5 & 6 in the first
strategy.
Step 7: Count your winnings. A $91 + $43 + $2.10 =
$136. Enough to get a six pack of a winter beer like Squire’s Amber as well.
Jump
onto your favourite porn site after
consuming your winnings and you’ll be lying back, saying: “Aah! My belly’s full
and my balls are empty … life is good!”
And remember ... gambling is only fun when you think carefully about what you're doing.
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