As promised, I have run a final simulation
of the Federal election, using the individual lower house electorate betting odds as of this Friday night (1/7).
The most probable seat distribution is
now almost evenly split between 79 - 65 - 6 and 78 - 65 - 7. Labor’s chances of
forming a majority government is now less than 0.1%, but the chance of a hung
parliament is still high: 25% ± 2.5%. Although several seats have firmed in
either the Coalition or Labor’s favour, the extra uncertainty around the
independents is offsetting this clarity.
Independent (ALP stooge) Rob Oakeshott
now looks to be a real problem for the Coalition in the NSW electorate of
Cowper. With Cowper now at almost even money, as well as Mayo and Batman, there
is a real chance of 7 on the cross benches.
There are 14 lower house seats in which
2 candidates are both paying less than $3 on all sites and thus could be
considered genuinely close contests: Cowper, Greenway, Macarthur and Macquarie
in NSW, Batman and Chisolm in VIC, Brisbane, Capricornia and Petrie in QLD,
Hindmarsh and Mayo in SA, Cowan in WA and Braddon in TAS. Of these, Cowper, Macarthur,
Macquarie, Batman, Mayo and Cowan are very close.
This is a slight change from Wednesday
night’s run. Greenway has tightened, but Gilmore now looks safer for the
Liberals. Brisbane is now close as the ALP have improved and Forde now looks
safe for the Liberals, as do Burt and Lyons for the ALP.
PS: Don’t forget to
vote for minor parties in the senate before you choose a major (if you choose a
major at all). There are plenty of liberal choices: Liberal Democrats, Voluntary
Euthanasia, Drug Law Reform, HEMP . It’s hard to tell what the Secular Party
and the Science Party / Cyclists Alliance are all about, but I voted for them
anyway.
