Thursday, 23 June 2016

The Best Brexit Result: A Very Narrow Bremain

With voting about to get underway in the Brexit referendum, what is the best outcome for Britain?
I won't link to the betting sites, because the odds will change so rapidly, so there is not much point in deriving probabilities from them. Last estimate was 1.25 for Remain and 4.00 for Brexit. That translates to an implied 81% probability for Britain to remain in the EU. 
Better for Britain is a very close Bremain, say 51 - 49 or 52 - 48. This would force the Eurocrats to really put a dollar value on Britain remaining part of the EU, without the chaos of it actually exiting.
The salient problem driving the Brexit vote is the technocratic socialism which Britain has always hated. To imagine anything else in the EU is anathema to the EU MPs in Brussels and that is the nub of the problem

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