Federal Election Betting Says ALP With Slim Majority

I derived implied probabilities from the seat by seat odds from Sportsbet, Ladbrokes and the TAB for today's federal election and used them to simulate the election result. The method is discussed here.

The most likely outcome was ALP 79 seats, the Coalition (LNP) 63, 1 for the Greens (Melbourne) and 8 independents (including Bob Katter in Kennedy), giving the ALP a slim, but workable majority.

The simulation implies a 79% chance of a Labor majority, 20% chance of a hung parliament and < 0.5% chance of the Coalition government being returned.

Given that 2 of the cross bench MPs will be Andrew Wilkie and Adam Bandt, the ALP really only need 74 seats for government, as opposed to 76 to govern outright. When that is taken into account, Labor's chances of forming a government increase to about 90%.